Ghana Fixed Income: Where Yields Settle After Disinflation
With disinflation underway, we expect the front end of the cedi curve to reprice lower through 2026, rewarding investors who lock in duration early rather than rolling short Treasury bills.
Ghana's disinflation has been faster than many expected, and the Treasury-bill rates that anchored short-term portfolios through the restructuring years are now drifting lower. For institutional and pension portfolios that rolled 91-day paper, the reinvestment risk is becoming real.
What changes for portfolios
We see room to extend duration selectively along the cedi curve. Locking in current medium-tenor yields hedges against the reinvestment drag that comes if policy rates fall further. We pair that with a liquidity sleeve to meet near-term obligations without forced selling.
Risks to the view
A renewed cedi depreciation episode or a fiscal slippage ahead of the budget could stall the rally and steepen the curve. We size duration accordingly and review monthly.
Related questions.
Should investors still hold Treasury bills?
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Speak to a Union Capital advisor about what it means for you.